Survive ’23 to Thrive in ’25: A Bright Future Awaits

图片来源 CUTRER摄影.

在梅尔·哈格德睿智的散文里, “如果我们能熬过12月, everything’s going to be all right I know…” That is the way I see the commercial real estate market just now.

经济衰退过去

At a lunch recently with another real estate broker and company owner, 问题出现了, “这会不会像上世纪80年代那样?我的回答是“不”。, because that was definitely the worst of times, and I don’t see this current episode as becoming that dark. 当时, the early 1980’s saw an enormous building boom, as Texas experienced a huge gusher in oil production, from the Arab-Israeli Wars of the 1970’s and the resultant OPEC embargos. 德州是阳光地带经济的一部分, 与铁锈地带形成鲜明对比, and we were seeing a lot of in-migration from the northeastern states. 然后, we had Savings and Loans dedicated to making construction loans for every type of commercial property which became extremely overdone. 但是S&l迫切希望获得费用收入, when interest rates skyrocketed into the double digits as the FED sought to squash inflation.

然后, in 1986, the real estate friendly tax laws were reversed, and tax shelters went away. Oil crashed to $10 a barrel and we entered a Recession. 的年代&Ls cratered over the next three years, and even the good ones were closed by the regulators. It kept getting worse with mass foreclosures, bankruptcies and even nine banks were liquidated. By the early 1990’s half the real estate workforce was gone, and the only survivors worked for the Resolution Trust Corporation, a government holding company that became the repository for billions of dollars of commercial real estate. 有大量的便宜货, like a tract of land that had been on the market for $150,每英亩卖15美元,000美元/英亩. 后来以超过5美元的价格售出.00 /平方英尺. But everyone in real estate had been wiped out and couldn’t buy. Those Texans that still had money were not in real estate and certainly weren’t going to jump in after that blood bath. 然而, east and west coast investors converged on the many auctions and scooped up huge bargains, eventually making many times their investment back. This seven-year period was a true Depression in real estate, with values falling 80% or more. 那是过去，现在是现在.

In 2008 the Great Financial Crisis put the target on banks and Wall Street, like the S&20世纪80年代. That washed out all the weak hands and got a few strong hands dirty, too. 然而, SA rode this out well with not too much stress. 那是过去，现在不同了. The banks are much stronger and more cautious. 然而, 就像我上个月提到的, the refinancing problems many face in the next year will be difficult. San Antonio is not in the terrible position in which we found ourselves back in 1986. 会出现止赎, but there is a great deal of “dry powder”, 可用的现金, 准备好突袭. 我们不像以前那样过度建设了, but I think the real pain is being felt in San Francisco, Chicago and New York as they wrestle with the dramatic shift in office use due to Covid, along with terrible crime and homelessness issues.

圣安东尼奥的弹性转型

今天不是那时. 然而, a great deal has changed in San Antonio in the past decades. 我们的经济更加多元化. Toyota, Navistar and Aisin have built manufacturing plants here. Kelly and Brooks Air Force Bases have been transformed into vibrant tech and industrial center. Port San Antonio combines aerospace facilities like Boeing and Lockheed with over a dozen new cyber-security companies. Brooks City Base combines manufacturing with office service centers, retail and Mission Trails Baptist Hospital. And then, Joint Base San Antonio, including San Antonio Military Medical Center, Ft. Sam, Randolph AFB, Camp Bullis and other facilities contributes over $41 billion to our economy.

圣安东尼奥稳步上升 

的年代an Antonio–New Braunfels Metropolitan area has a population over 2.6 million as of the end of 2022 and a workforce of 1,239,在五年内增长了近7%, 几乎是全国的两倍. 我们的人口增加了163人以上,000 in the past five years and is projected to grow by another 141,在未来的五年里，我们将增加1000万. From 2012 the Gross Metropolitan Product of our fair city grew from $93 billion to a whopping $144 billion, 10年内增长了56%!
The economic development organization spearheading the collaboration in our area is greater: SATX, and it projects that by 2025 we will have 30,000 new jobs in the industries they are targeting, 有50亿美元的新资本投资. This will then result in lots of spin-off jobs in other industries, 对整个社区的影响是140,000个工作岗位 and a total of $55 billion in economic impact.
SA’s strongest growth sectors are now professional, 科技服务, followed by transportation and warehousing, 然后是建筑业和制造业, 总共大约有50个,000个工作岗位.

The Powerhouse Megaregion Shaping Our Future

When we couple this strong performance and prospects in San Antonio with our neighbor to the north, we form the Austin-San Antonio Corridor or, ASAMSA, a powerhouse megaregion of over 5-million population, 以及3400亿美元的总产值. That puts us in the top ten regions in the country.
So, we will have to push through the current unpleasantness because a bright future lies before us.

Let’s “make it through December” and survive ‘23 to Thrive in ‘25!